Article courtesy of MIRS for SBAM’s Lansing Watchdog newsletter
If you find yourself playing the Word-Trigger drinking game this weekend and pick the term “red flag,” you could end up a bit tipsy after watching pollster Richard Czuba on Off the Record.
Not once, not twice, not three times, but four times Czuba uses the political warning sign to describe what he’s seeing in his latest survey for The Detroit News and WDIV-TV.
“Republicans have huge red flags leading into this election because of a 10-point difference in motivation,” Czuba said, pointing to strong Democrats reporting greater certainty about voting than strong Republicans.
The Detroit News/WDIV survey of 600 likely voters, conducted Aug. 31-Sept. 3, found that enthusiasm gap significant enough that the U.S. Senate race changes slightly when looking only at those who say they will definitely vote.
Republican Mike Rogers leads Democrat Abdul El-Sayed 45.8%-44.4% overall, well within the poll’s 4-percentage-point margin of error. But among those who say they will definitely vote, El-Sayed leads 46.7%-44.4%.
Czuba said the age breakdown creates another warning sign. He said 83% of Democrats under 30 reported being definite voters compared to 41% of Republicans in the same age group.
That’s potentially significant because Rogers leads among independent voters by nearly 14 points. If younger Democrats turn out in greater numbers, Czuba said, El-Sayed could overcome his weakness with independents, although he cautioned that younger voters historically have been unreliable voters.
Another red flag for Republicans is President Donald Trump.
Trump’s job approval in the poll stands at 35%, compared to 61% disapproval. Among the roughly 9% of voters undecided in the Senate race, 83% disapprove of Trump’s performance and only 3% approve.
Rogers wins Trump approvers 95%-4%, while El-Sayed wins Trump disapprovers 71%-15.5%.
In the governor’s race, Democrat Jocelyn Benson leads Republican John James (R-Shelby Township) 47%-43%. Benson’s advantage grows to about eight points, 49.5%-41%, among voters who say they definitely plan to vote.
But Czuba’s final red flag doesn’t involve a candidate.
It involves Proposal 1, whether Michigan should call a constitutional convention to consider rewriting some or all of the state Constitution.
The poll has Proposal 1 leading 47%-31%, with 22% undecided.
“There are some red flags on Con-Con here,” Czuba said.
That’s a dramatically different starting point from 2010, when Czuba said polling showed the proposal at roughly 35% support and 39% opposition. It ultimately went down 66.6%-33.4%.
“This could be very close,” he said.
Czuba said Democrats and politically centrist voters appear more receptive to the convention than Republicans, contrary to what some observers may have expected.
His explanation is broader voter frustration with government and a desire for more direct control over decisions.
“Voters want final approval on everything right now,” he said. “Anything that says, ‘We get control, we get to run the show,’ gets their support.”
Czuba pointed to the backlash over data centers as an example, with residents in some communities complaining that large projects are being “rammed down their throats.”
His advice for Democrats opposed to a constitutional convention: Start talking to Democratic voters about why they believe calling one would be dangerous.
Count the red flags and have a drink at wkar.org.
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