Article courtesy of MIRS for SBAM’s Lansing Watchdog newsletter
Democrats Abdul El-Sayed and Jocelyn Benson lead Michigan’s U.S. Senate and gubernatorial races in a Marist Poll released Wednesday, with few voters saying they might change their minds.
El-Sayed leads Republican Mike Rogers, 51% to 44%, while Benson leads Republican John James, 53% to 41%, among registered voters. Democrats also hold a nine-point advantage on the generic congressional ballot, 53% to 44%.
But beyond the margins, the survey suggests campaigns are working with an electorate whose preferences are largely established, less than a week after absentee ballots became available statewide Sept. 24.
In the Senate race, 3% are undecided. In a follow-up question measuring candidate support, only 2% say they might vote differently, while 74% strongly support their choice and 24% somewhat support it.
El-Sayed has the stronger support among his supporters: 79% strongly support him, compared with 67% of Rogers’ backers.
In the governor’s race, 4% are undecided. The candidate-support question finds just 3% saying they might vote differently, with 66% strongly supporting their choice and 31% somewhat supporting it. Strong support is nearly identical among Benson’s backers, 66%, and James’ supporters, 65%, according to Marist’s survey tables.
Those numbers suggest a small pool of openly persuadable voters, although “somewhat” supporting a candidate leaves room for preferences to shift.
President Donald Trump also figures prominently in congressional voting decisions. A combined 62% describe their congressional vote primarily in relation to Trump: 42% say it is mostly a vote against him and 20% a vote for him. Another 37% say he is not much of a factor.
Trump’s Michigan job approval stands at 41%, with 57% disapproving. Among independents, El-Sayed leads Rogers, 48% to 45%, while Benson leads James, 48% to 42%.
Marist surveyed 1,235 Michigan registered voters Sept. 24–27 through live telephone interviews, text and online responses. The poll’s overall margin of error is plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.
The Marist results mirror other recent polling showing a shift toward Democrats. In the latest seven U.S. Senate polls tracked by RealClearPolling, El-Sayed holds an average lead of 4.5 percentage points.
In the previous seven polls, conducted Aug. 6–Sept. 16, El-Sayed led by an average of 1.8 percentage points.
Of the seven polls before the primary, El-Sayed led Rogers in four, Rogers led in two and one was tied.
In another polling development highlighted by The Bulwark, the New York Times/Siena poll found El-Sayed winning support from 8% of Michigan voters who backed Trump in 2024. That compares with 5% of 2024 Trump voters supporting Democrat Chris Pappas in New Hampshire and 3% supporting Democrat Troy Jackson in Maine.
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