Top 10 House Seats Most Likely To Flip

Article courtesy of MIRS for SBAM’s Lansing Watchdog newsletter

You don’t need polling to show that Republicans are sweating going into this election cycle. Chedrick Greene’s 19.46 point victory (58.87% to 39.42%) in the special 35th Senate District election earlier this month should have every House Republican in a 57% base district or lower revisiting their re-election plans.

President Donald Trump only lost the 35th District in 2024 by 1 percentage point. MIRS has the Democratic base number in SD-35 at 53%. Greene over-performed by more than 13 percentage points.

Could this be a Blue Wave election? It absolutely can’t be ruled out. And, if so, this is what a Blue Wave looks like.

Let’s look back to 2006. Gubernatorial year. Second mid-term for Republican President George W. Bush. The country was at war in Iraq and conducting military action in Afghanistan. The Republican governor nominee was a gazillionaire. Republicans entered the cycle with 58 seats.

Here’s what happened:

Marc Corriveau won an open Plymouth seat with a 43.9% Democratic base. Terry Brown won an open Thumb seat with a 44.6% Dem base. John Espinoza won an open Sanilac County seat with a 44.8% Dem base. Marty Griffin beat an incumbent in a Jackson 45% Dem base seat. Mike Simpson beat an incumbent in a second Jackson County-based seat with a 45.3% Dem base. Mary Valentine beat an incumbent in a Muskegon County seat with a 49.6% Dem base.

And those were the big upsets. That’s not counting Robert Dean, Kate Ebli, Gary McDowell or Kathy Angerer wins.

Democrats exited the cycle with 58 seats.

When the top of the ticket collapses. Things that were never on your radar (Corriveau, Brown, Espinoza) happen. So, until we see new data that Republicans are not taking a bath in November, these are our Top 10 House Seats Most Likely To Flip.

1. 54th House District (Open, Steele) R to D– Big Democratic recruiting win with Sarah Pounds, a relatable working mother of four who is putting in the work and comes from the Republican portion of this district. Republicans have a contested primary featuring a former Oxford Trustee who resigned last year for personal reasons and a 23-year-old go-getter.
2. 44th House District (Frisbie) R to D – Rep. Steve Frisbie (R-Battle Creek) has stood out as a hard-working freshman, but the 52% Democratic base number in Calhoun County isn’t great for him without Trump on the ballot. Former Rep. Jim Haadsma has been running since the recount showed him losing by 79 votes on Dec. 10, 2024.
3. 46th House District (Schmaltz) R to D– Democrats love, love, love Jan Maino, a lifelong district resident who married another lifelong district resident. Her kids went to school in the district. She has social connections all over the place in Jackson, which is Rep. Kathy Schmaltz (R-Jackson)’s home base. The Democrats’ last two nominees in this district had some skeletons. Likely not going to find any with this longtime mental health therapist.
4. 27th House District (Linting) R to D– House Speaker Matt Hall (R-Richland Township) is seemingly helping Rep. Rylee Linting (R-Wyandotte) with more legislative victories than any other member. It raises the question about whether Linting profiles better as a legislative challenger than a legislator. Also, former Rep. Jaime Churches is back and she says she has some unfinished work to attend to.
5. 68th House District (Martin) R to D –Historically speaking, these Genesee County seats are prone to partisan shifts that reflect external factors, regardless of whether a candidate is an incumbent or not. We’re thinking about then-Rep. Dave Robertson losing in 1992, then Rep. Sandra Hill losing to Rose Bogardus in 1998 and then-Rep. Pat Lockwood losing to Robertson in 2003. Of course, we had Rep. Paul Scott recalled in 2011. Also, the voters in suburban/rural Genesee aren’t terribly dissimilar from the voters in the 35th Senate District.
6. 109th House District (Bohnak) R to D – If there is a bright side for Republicans, it’s that there’s only one open seat they could lose on election day. Democrats need to unseat incumbents to get majority and that’s where it can be easier said than done. We haven’t seen Marquette fluctuate back and forth like Downriver or rural Genesee County. It’s been a slow trend toward the Republicans in this Upper Peninsula district. That said . . . this is the most Democratic House seat (50.35%) held by a Republican. In this type of environment, it’s hard to survive those types of numbers.
7. 28th House District (Thompson) R to D – This is another base district ranking. Rep. Jamie Thompson (R-Brownstown) has been an out-spoken advocate for her district, but this Downriver district cottons to Democratic candidates. In 2022, Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, Sen. Darrin Camilleri (D-Trenton) and U.S. Rep. Debbie Dingell (D-Dearborn) all won this district. In 2008, the communities that make up this competitive Downriver district went roughly 60% for the Democratic state House nominee, Deb Kennedy, who turned out not to be a particularly strong state representative.
8. 58th House District (Robinson) R to D– We know all about Rep. Ron Robinson (R-Utica)’s strong work ethic, but we saw in 2024 what a strong community or political organizer (Linting) can do in these types of House districts. Katrina Manetta has experience organizing thousands for Indivisible Metro Detroit. If she can’t use that army of volunteers to help her, she can rally together a different troop to share her personal story of losing her sister, in part due to not having health insurance.
9. 29th House District (DeSana) R to D– If this year turns out to be like 2006, there will be seats you never saw coming. The Democrats are fantasizing about going after Rep. Mark Tisdel (R-Rochester), House Speaker Matt Hall (R-Richland Township) or House Appropriations Chair Ann Bollin (R-Brighton), but it’s seats like this one that represent the type of district that may be in play.  So, no, we’re not predicting Rep. James DeSana (R-Carleton) is going to lose to a Rob Zombie tribute band singer. This district is simply a representation of what could happen if things go really bad for the Republicans – a very strong Trump district that sees huge voter disinterest because the guy isn’t on the ballot.
10. 31st House District (Miller, Open) D to R– On the other hand, if Trump can end the war in Iran and gas prices stabilize to something reasonable, this will be the Republicans’ best chance for a pick up. Laura Perry may be their best recruit. A soccer coach mom and small business owner, Perry is a go-getter who has been raising dough for the better part of a year. The Democrats have a sharp cookie running to replace Rep. Reggie Miller (D-Belleville) in Milan Council member Shannon Dare Wayne, but she got a really late start.

Other Republican seats to keep an eye on: Tisdel’s HD-55, Rep. Nancy DeBoer (R-Holland)’s HD-86, Rep. Timothy Beson (R-Bay City)’s HD-96, Hall’s HD-42, Bollin’s HD-49.

Other Democratic seats to watch: Open HD-22 (Koleszar) and Rep. Denise Mentzer (D-Mount Clemens)’s HD-31.

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