Skip to main content
Join Now
State capitol building and surrounding complex for article on districts

< Back to All

Updated Top 10 House Districts Most Likely to Flip

June 25, 2024

1. 109th District (D to R) – *1

Republican Melody Wagner has run for Marquette’s state House more times than Ralph Nader has run for president. Didn’t think that was possible, did you?

We’re not predicting Wagner will even win the primary in run No. 5, but consider these numbers for Wegner: Run No.1 (2016) 1,882 votes. Run No. 2 (2018) 5,961 votes. Run No. 3 (2020) 19,643 votes and 42% of the vote. Run No. 4 (2022) 19,438 votes and 47% of the vote.

And Trump only lost this seat by 100 votes in 2020? If Hill’s voting record looked more like that of Sara Cambensy or John Kivela, we may be projecting a leveling off for the Republican nominee. It’s not and the Yoopers know it.

2. 46th District (R to D) – *2 

Let’s think about this. A 20-year-old Democrat who dropped out of the 2022 race for a few weeks in October because he pressured young women to share nude photos of themselves with him got 46% of the vote. So, it’s fair to call this a floor.

Biden won 13 of 14 city of Jackson precincts in 2020 and Trump doesn’t exactly dominate in Blackman Township, so Rep. Kathy Schmaltz (R-Jackson) can’t expect a big bounce from the top of the ticket. The key will be if Jackson Mayor Daniel Mahoney does the work in a 52% Dem district. He only won re-election last year by 279 votes (53.7% to 46.29%). Not exactly a blowout.

3. 83rd District (D to R) – *7 

Republicans are bullish on this seat given how much of a swing city Wyoming is and Tommy Brann’s past successes here. Brann sold off his shares of his old restaurant, so he has time to knock on doors. Also, he won Wyoming in 2022 when he ran for the state Senate against now-Senate Majority Leader Winnie Brinks (D-Grand Rapids).

The sticking point here for R’s is the 5% sliver of Grand Rapids. It’s a lot more Democratic that the sliver of Byron Township is Republican. Also, Rep. John Fitzgerald (D-Wyoming) got some good headlines for the hotel-motel tax bill, and he’s taken a lead on public safety.

Former office holder versus current office holder. Control of the House may hinge on what happens here.

4. 58th District (D to R) – *9 

Utica Councilmember and broadcast journalist Ron Robinson gives Republicans a public official with public speaking experience. The GOP primary shouldn’t be an issue for Robinson, either, giving him time to focus on the general.

Rep. Nate Shannon (D-Sterling Heights) has won in a district that Trump has won, but this time he is defending his vote for a hate crime bill that Republicans claim would have allowed people to face criminal charges for not correctly identifying someone’s gender.

The last Utica council member who ran for this seat was a guy named Farrington. He won three times. So did his wife.

5. 27th District (D to R) – *4 

Republicans are expected to spend a lot of resources against Rep. Jaime Churches (D-Wyandotte), who has reportedly knocked doors since December. She’s closely following Sen. Darrin Camilleri (D-Trenton)’s book of how to win Downriver, even with Trump on the ballot.

Churches has taken some tough votes, but her Republican opponents are young, untested and ready to do battle against themselves, which leaves Churches more time to knock more doors and sing her own praises.

6. 68th District (R to D) – *8 

Former Rep. Tim Sneller is running in a district that is not nearly as Dem-friendly as his old 50th district. This one includes his old stomping grounds of Burton, where he’s served in an elected or staff role since the early ‘80s. But that’s only about 25% of the district and he’ll need to do a lot better than the 50% the 2022 Democratic nominee received there.

Sneller will also need to beat Rep. David Martin (R-Davison) in the Republicans’ home turn in Grand Blanc and Grand Blanc Township and come close to breaking even in Davison to cushion the losses he’ll take in Atlas and Groveland townships. It’ll be a tall order.

7. 31st District (D to R) – *10 

House Agriculture Committee Chair Reggie Miller (D-Belleville) didn’t get the Farm Bureau endorsement; her Republican opponent, former 2022 nominee Dale Biniecki, did. Is it because her committee has moved a grand total of six bills in 18 months? Don’t know, but that’s gotta sting.

It’s always tough for someone to win a rematch in politics, but the word is the R’s have some dirt on Miller dating back to her time on the Van Buren Township Board. We’ll see what that’s about.

8. 103rd District (D to R) – *3

Now that the Republicans have a primary here, and Rep. Betsy Coffia (D-Traverse City) does not, we’ve cooled on this one.

Grassroots conservative Katie Kniss nearly knocked off Rep. John Roth (R-Interlochen) in 2022 and now she’s seeking the Coffia seat. If she beats Lisa Trombley, which is very possible, Coffia’s road in a district that is getting more progressive (not necessarily just Democratic) gets clearer.

Plus, once Kniss/Trombley spend most of their money in the primary, will the Republican caucus give the winner Jack O’Malley-like money to beat Coffia, who has already raised $240,000 on her own?

The GOP primary winner may need to have to write a big check for herself.

9. 28th District (R to D) – *NR 

What if Democrats spent all the money they spent on trying to protect then-Rep. Alex Garza on Robert Kull in this Downriver district? We’ll never know for sure, but we presume Kull would have been closer than the 735 votes Rep. Jamie Thompson (R-Brownstown) won by.

The Democrats really like their candidate in Janise Robinson, a special education teacher in Taylor for 25 years. Thompson is well known among conservative circles, but one wonders if the time she spent at the Turning Point Action gathering in Detroit last weekend was more beneficial than knocking on doors in neighborhoods.

10. 86th House District (D to R) – *NR 

Republicans may have taken conservatism a little too far with this whole Ottawa Impact thing and that could hurt the whole Republican brand in traditionally conservative West Michigan. A Democrat beats a sitting Republican county commissioner in a recall in Holland this year. Truly, it feels like anything is possible.

The Democrats have already spent money here to support Democratic nominee Abby Klomparens. Also, Rep. Nancy DeBoer (R-Holland) has lost a mayor’s race in Holland before, so she isn’t unstoppable. The atmosphere is so strange in Holland.

* last ranking, March 8, 2023.

Dropped out: No. 5 Rep. Denise Mentzer (D-Mount Clemens). Struggling to figure out what the negatives are on her and how you can make them stick in Macomb County.

No. 6 Rep. Mark Tisdel (R-Rochester Hills). We’re staying away from this messy Democratic primary for now. Tisdel has been careful with his votes, too.


Article courtesy MIRS News for SBAM’s Lansing Watchdog newsletter

Click here for more News & Resources.

Share On: