Who Do The Pundits Think Will Run For Governor?
August 9, 2016
Even though the next gubernatorial race is two years away, the inside players around town know that the race is already tacitly underway.
So in the dog days of summer, it seemed like a newsworthy suggestion to do a pundit poll on who is running and who is not.
Dennis Denno at Denno Research and Matt Resch at Resch Strategies felt obligated to run this question up the flag poll.
To absolutely no one’s surprise, 100 percent believe Attorney General Bill Schuette will run. They are not so sure about Lt. Gov. Brian Calley.
His standard line is he takes one election at a time, referring to the current cycle, and will say something about his future in the new year. Meanwhile, his holding back has prompted 20 percent to conclude he will not get in, 12 percent were unsure and 68 percent believe he will.
Fresh off a primary win for Macomb County Drain Commissioner, soon-to-be former U.S. Rep. Candice Miller was on Denno and Resch’s list as a gubernatorial possibility, but only 22 percent believe she will get in.
Recall that she has flirted with this for many years and never pulled the trigger. Another 67 percent figure she won’t get in. A final 11 percent are on the fence.
Over on the Democratic side, Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan has apparently done a bang-up job of convincing the insiders that he really does not want to run for governor because 85 percent believe him. Another 14 percent think he will get in and 2 percent are unsure.
Macomb County Executive Mark Hackel is in the same boat with Miller. He’s considered a gubernatorial run for years, but only 16 percent of the pundits believe he will run, while 67 percent say he won’t and 16 percent are unsure.
The insiders are more confident about U.S. Rep. Dan Kildee (D-Flint) and former Senate Minority Leader Gretchen Whitmer. Exactly 86 percent believe he will get in and 81 percent believe she is going to run, too. Another 12 percent say no about him and 16 percent say no about her. The other 2 and 3 percent are undecided.
The Denno-Resch duo contacted 101 insiders in Lansing via email and in this survey 66 responded. The full list of pundits can be found at www.thepunditpoll.com.